This Christmas Eve, while children around the world may be hoping to catch a glimpse of Santa’s sleigh, NASA has warned that an even more unexpected visitor will be streaking across the skies.
A massive asteroid, nicknamed the "Christmas Eve asteroid," is set to skim past Earth on December 24 at an astonishing speed of 14,743 mph (23,700 km/h). The space rock, known as 2024 XN1, is about the size of a 10-storey building, with a diameter ranging between 29 and 70 metres (95 to 230 feet).
According to NASA’s Asteroid Watch dashboard, 2024 XN1 will pass at a safe distance of 4.48 million miles (7.21 million km) from Earth. Despite the close proximity in astronomical terms, experts have reassured the public that there is no risk of collision.
No threat to Earth
Jess Lee, an astronomer at the Royal Greenwich Observatory, explained: "It will be very far away, around 18 times further from Earth than the Moon is, and so with this predicted path, it won’t come close enough to hit Earth."
However, Lee added that the asteroid’s size serves as a reminder of the potential dangers posed by such objects. If 2024 XN1 were to hit Earth, scientists estimate the impact could unleash the equivalent of 12 million tonnes of TNT, flattening an area of 700 square miles (2,000 square km).
After its pass on December 24, 2024 XN1 won’t return to Earth’s vicinity until January 2032. PHOTO: NASA
The asteroid was only detected on December 12, when both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) spotted it approaching the Earth. Following calculations of its orbit, the agencies classified the asteroid’s flyby as a "close approach," though it remains on track to miss Earth by millions of miles.
A close call, but no collision
2024 XN1 will make its closest approach at 02:56 am GMT on December 24, but with its distance and size, the ESA has rated this event as a "very frequent" occurrence. It has not been included in the ESA’s "Risk List," a list of objects with any non-zero chance of colliding with Earth.
While the asteroid will be far too distant to be visible to most observers, Lee notes that even a relatively small asteroid could cause catastrophic damage if it were to strike. She draws a comparison to the 1908 Tunguska Event in Russia, where an asteroid of a similar size exploded in the atmosphere, knocking down 80 million trees. The energy released was estimated to range from 3 to 30 megatons of TNT.
After its pass on December 24, 2024 XN1 won’t return to Earth’s vicinity until January 2032, when it will pass at a slightly closer distance of 3.1 million miles (4.7 million km). Its closest approach will be in December 2106, when it will skim past at just 2.11 million miles (3.4 million km).
Other space rocks visiting Earth this Christmas
The Christmas period will see a few other space rocks passing by Earth. On December 23, a smaller asteroid named 2013 YB has a slim chance of colliding with Earth. However, at less than 3 metres (10 feet) in diameter, it is expected to burn up in the atmosphere, producing nothing more than a bright fireball. The odds of impact are extremely low, with the ESA estimating a one-in-52,356 chance of a collision.
On Christmas Day, a larger asteroid, 2021 BA2, will make a notably close pass at 1.71 million miles (2.76 million km). Measuring between 30 and 70 metres (100 to 230 feet) in diameter, it is considered a "potential city killer," but, like 2024 XN1, space agencies have confirmed there is no risk of a collision.
Finally, the next truly large asteroid to pass by Earth will be in early January 2025. An asteroid measuring 400 metres (1,310 feet) across will streak past the planet on January 5, 2025, at 49,660 mph (79,920 km/h). It will pass by at a distance of 2.29 million miles (3.68 million km), but experts predict no danger to Earth.
The "Christmas Eve Asteroid"
Name: 2024 XN1
Discovery date: December 12, 2024
Estimated diameter: 29–70 metres
Closest approach: December 24, 2024, at 02:56 am GMT
Closest distance to Earth: 4.48 million miles (7.21 million km)
Risk of collision: Zero
While the near miss of the "Christmas Eve asteroid" poses no threat to Earth, the event serves as a reminder of the need for continued monitoring of near-Earth objects.
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